For those non-baseball fans, the Winter Meetings happen every offseason where the front offices of the MLB teams come together, this year in San Diego, to be a central point for players and their agents to go negotiate. So far, two big names have already come off the market.
Justin Verlander: 2 years 86 million with the New York Mets
After watching Jacob DeGrom go off and sign with the Texas Rangers, Mets owner Steve Cohen wasted no time filling that void in the starting rotation by reuniting Verlander with his former Tigers teammate Max Scherzer. The craziest part of this is that this lucrative contract giving to Verlander, a pitcher in his 40s a year removed from having Tommy John surgery, is less risky then signing DeGrom.
Trea Turner: 11 years 300 million Philadelphia Phillies
After losing to the Houston Astros in the World Series, Dave Dombrowski didn't waste any time doing what he does. He went out and got Turner, one of the top players on the market, and reunited him with his former teammate Bryce Harper. This is a big get for the National League champions who add yet another big name bat to thier already loaded lineup, as well as bolstering a poor defense.
These two moves will have a ripple effect on the free agent market; the first push in the dominoes that will soon fall. One could argue that the DeGrom signing really pushed the starting pitching market into hyperdrive, but the Verlander move only accelerates it. It seeming takes the New York Mets out of the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes (but I wouldn't be all too surprised if Cohen opens his checkbook because he will spend all the money). Once Rodon is gone teams will then turn to Chris Bassit who is the last (I say this sparingly) big name before teams are left to guys like Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, Charlie Morton, and Noah Syndergaard. This will also lead to some trade likely being made, the two big names coming from the same team in Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. The Brewers just shipped off Hunter Renfore as they have a history of not spending a lot of money, so keep in eye out on those two guys. (Another factor in this is a team looking to trade for Burnes or Woodruff could possibly convince Milwaukee to add Yelich to the deal in return for paying for much of the deal, getting the Brewers off of a contract they are not keen in paying for.)
The Turner move is a lot more interesting. The shortstop market this offseason has a lot bigger names than the starting pitchers. Names still on the market include Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Xander Bogaerts. These three names are being courted by the many shortstop needy teams like the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, and then obviously the teams those named above played for this past season. The Turner signing starts to set things in motion. The best way to follow what could happen next would be to break in down into different scenarios.
Lets first look at the main suitors for the remaining big name shortstops. This is obviously excluding another club coming in and making a surprise signing (like the New York Yankees trying to save face should Aaron Judge end up in San Francisco.)
Xander Bogaerts: Phillies, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers
Dansby Swanson: Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers
Carlos Correa: Twins, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox*,
Working top to bottom, now that the Phillies have signed Turner, their need for Bogaerts is no more, so it comes down to really two teams, the Red Sox and Cubs, with the Dodgers looming behind both of them. The easy choice would be for him to return to the Red Sox, the team he has been with his entire career and where he has won two World Series championships with. Being a fan of the Red Sox however, I can tell you that I am not as certain this will be the case as it should be. It should be a no-brainer that the team brings him back, especially for everything he has done for the club. He is the captain, and they should pay him what he is worth. Those worried about paying top tier shortstop money at the back end of his contract are stupid and dumb. To add on to all of this, the Red Sox are looking to extend young third base superstar Rafael Devers. The reality is that if they don't bring back Bogaerts, they may as well trade Devers because odds are he won't come back after that. This is the worst case possibility for the Red Sox. The Cubs are an interesting option. They are led by Jed Hoyer, a former Red Sox front office man, and are also looking at catcher Christian Vazquez, who sat next to Bogaerts on team flights. They also have former 2013 Red Sox David Ross and Mike Napoli on the coaching staff, both of whom were teammates with a young Xander Bogaerts. The Dodgers also offer an interesting dynamic as former Red Sox Mookie Betts is probably pitching them to Xander. We also know they are not afraid to open the checkbook for free agents.
For Dansby Swanson, the easy thing is to see him return to the Atlanta Braves. Its where he excelled the past few years, and after getting their young guys on team friendly deals, they definitely have the space to bring him in. The Cardinals have also emerged as a contender to sign the former number one overall draft pick. The birds were rumored to be looked to trade for Bogaerts during this past season, but have seemed to have moved off of him and turn their eyes to Swanson who is two years younger. The Cubs are in on all three of these guys, so signing Swanson who has improved year after year is something they are keen on. The Dodgers will be in on everyone because well, they are the Dodgers and seem to have unlimited money.
Carlos Correa is an interesting one. After last years failure in free agency, he signed a three year deal with the Minnesota Twins before opting out after his first year. The Twins are looking to resign him, and he is the only big name shortstop to be on their roster. The Cubs met with him the other day, and seem to be very high on him. The Dodgers continue to be the Dodgers, and they seem to be a perfect spot for Correa. The Red Sox are an interesting party in all of this, as they could try to rebound in the most Red Sox way after letting Bogaerts potentially walk.
Now the scenarios, which I will be listing in order of how likely I think they will happen:
Scenario A:
Red Sox sign Xander Bogaerts, Braves sign Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa signs with either Cubs, Twins, or Dodgers. This is the scenario which makes the most sense. Swanson and Bogaerts return to their teams leading Correa to take the biggest deal he can from the three remaining shortstop needy teams. Correa seems like the name which will come off the market last, waiting for other pieces to align before allowing the remaining teams to lure him with there big money offers.
Scenario B:
Red Sox sign Xander Bogaerts, Cubs sign Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa signs with the Twins or Dodgers. Very similar to Scenario A, but the Cubs snatch up Swanson leaving Correa only two options to make the most possible money.
Scenario C:
Cubs sign Xander Bogaerts, Braves sign Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa signs with the Twins or Dodgers.
Scenario D:
Red Sox/Cubs Xander Bogaerts sign Xander Bogaerts, Cardinals sign Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa signs with Cubs/Twins/Dodgers. If Xander signs with the Cubs, that takes them out of the Correa sweepstakes, but if he stays in Boston in this scenario, I see Correa in Chicago.
Scenario E:
This is the weirdest one of all, hence it being last on the pecking order. The Cubs sign both Swanson and Bogaerts, leading to the Red Sox making a panic move and reuniting Carlos Correa with his bench coach from Houston Alex Cora. I see this as the least likely option, as while it has been rumored, it would entail the Cubs convincing Bogaerts to switch to third base, a move he is adamantly against at this time
This five scenarios are the five I see most likely happening. Obviously there could be a "mystery team" who swoops in and snatch up one of these names, the two most likely being the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankeees depending on whoever doesn't land Aaron Judge. While the Turner and Verlander moves have started the dominoes, the Judge signing will be the last little bit of snow which starts the avalanche to get moving, thundering down the mountain. So strap in, and get your coffee, because with the meetings happening in San Diego on West Coast time, we could get a string of breaking news late into the night.
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