Despite having a few days to take in the Celtics Game 7 victory over the Miami Heat, I am still on cloud 9. I wasn't old enough to remember 2008 and thankfully just too young to not remember 2010. So this is my first time seeing the Celtics get some real success, and now they get to go up against the basketball dynasty of my life time in the Finals. I got to watching some highlights from the two matchups these two teams had in the regular season, both which ended in a split with the away team winning in both matchups, and have come away with some takeaways for this series.
Health will play a key matchup in this series, similar to how it has in all the other series the Celtics have played in this postseason. The three days off will prove to be beneficial to the Celtics giving key players some extra days of rest. ECF MVP Jayson Tatum will get some time to rest his ailing shoulder which seemed to effect his shot for a bit in this series, Rob Will will get a chance to rest his knee, Marcus Smart can stay off his ankle, and Al Horford will get a chance to get some rest being the wonderful old man he is. The extra days of rest will help the Warriors as well though, with Gary Payton II poised to come back after getting injured by Dillion Brooks in the Western Conference Semi Finals, and former Finals MVP Andre Iguaodala seemingly ready to come back. So with both teams getting the chance to get healthy enough, it will be the case of who will stay more healthy throughout this series.
Defense will also be big, with both teams coming in as the top two defenses in the league. As is the key with good defense, finding and exploiting mismatches is where both teams will thrive. I believe that the Warriors will try to isolate their guards Steph Curry and Jordan Poole on the Celtics big men in the pick and role. With the Celtics switching defense it will put the Williams and Horford on the two guards who will have an advantage in creating their shot. Ime Udoka will also have to make an adjustment as the drop coverage used in the Heat series will not be as effective against the Warriors who are a better shooting team. The Warriors will also most likely try and go small, with Draymond Green playing the 5 to try and create more mismatches on defense. This may make the Celtics two big lineup less effective than it has been in previous series this postseason. The small ball lineup by the Warriors, while more effective on offense, could be less effective on defense with the Celtics taking advantage of their height on the offensive end of the floor. The Heat tried going small ball for points in the Eastern Conference Finals, so the Celtics may be poised to be ready for it, but the Heat shooters are a lot different than the Warriors shooters.
Offensively we know what to expect from the Warriors. On the Celtics side, with the Warriors personnel, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should be able to create their own shots at ease. Tatum poses a real threat to the Warriors with his height, and if the Warriors decide to put a good defender like Draymond Green on him, it will leave the big men for the Celtics with mismatches down low. Taking care of the ball will be key for this Celtics team too. In most of their losses this postseason, it has followed a very similar script, where the team turns the ball over a lot leading to easy buckets in transition for the opposing team giving them a big lead from the jump. Another issue is when they get up big, they tend to go away from what worked for them, holding the ball and playing iso when it is unneeded. This allows the opponent to get back in the game, and is what almost what cost them in Game 7 on Sunday night. Both of these things are bad, but even worse against the Warriors who can delete a deficit or double a lead in the blink of the eye.
Historically, the Celtics have been good against the Warriors in the Steve Kerr era, especially compared to the rest of the league. With Marcus Smart going up against Steph Curry and the height the Celtics have all the way around, I think they will have a good chance in winning this series, more than many people are actually giving them. I think that they will have to steal one of the first two games in Oakland, most likely game 2 continuing their trend of bouncing back after losses this postseason. Losing the first means that they will need to win back to back games at one point, but I believe in the resilience of this team. The easy way would be to win n both games at home and close it out in six games, but like Jaylen Brown said, they don't like to make it easy. I do not think it will be at all, but I see the Celtics pulling it out and bringing banner 18 to Boston.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION: CELTICS IN 7
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